THERE ARE MANY "LUNACY LEVELS" WHEN IT COMES TO CONSPIRACIES, SO BE AWARE OF THE CATAGORIES EACH THEORY WOULD BE CLASSIFIED UNDER...
HERE YOU WILL FIND DIFFERENT CONSPIRACIES WHICH I AM SURE WILL SPARK HEATED DEBATES, AND AT THE VERY LEAST, A FEW SPIRITED CONVERSATIONS. ALTHO I DO NOT ALWAYS AGREE WITH THESE TALES OF INTRIGUE, AND MYSTERY, I DO FIND THEM TO BE ENTERTAINING AND THOUGHT PROVOKING. PLEASE FEEL FREE TO SUBMIT YOUR OWN TOPICS, OR LINKS, AS THIS IS THE PLACE FOR SUCH THINGS.
John Kuhles, born 1966, Netherlands, independent “Detective Like” NWO & UFO-researcher for 22 years. As Security-Officer on duty, John had a first UFO-encounter 15 July 1990 1.40 AM. Filmed 2 times a UFO 1991+92, one making 90 degree turn, other was a successful “CE-5 initiative” thanks to CE-5 Protocols, that changed his life forever, also a Near Death Experience (NDE) created a different view on our so called “education” system +”free” mainstream media.
Assertion: The health care law is a "government takeover" of health care.
-- U.S. Rep. C.W. Bill Young, R-Fla., Feb. 20, 2010, in a speech to Pinellas County Republicans.
Fact check: "Government takeover" conjures a European approach where the government owns the hospitals and the doctors are public employees. But the law Congress passed relies largely on the free market. It's true that the law significantly increases government regulation of health insurers. But it is, at its heart, a system that relies on private companies and the free market. Most Americans will continue to get coverage from private insurers.
-- Politifact rated the claim Pants on Fire. (propaganda)
Philosophy of government that stresses the primacy and glory of the state, unquestioning obedience to its leader, subordination of the individual will to the state's authority, and harsh suppression of dissent. Martial virtues are celebrated, while liberal and democratic values are disparaged. Fascism arose during the 1920s and '30s partly out of fear of the rising power of the working classes; it differed from contemporary communism (as practiced under Joseph Stalin) by its protection of business and landowning elites and its preservation of class systems. The leaders of the fascist governments of Italy (1922–43), Germany (1933–45), and Spain (1939–75)—Benito Mussolini, Adolf Hitler, and Francisco Franco—were portrayed to their publics as embodiments of the strength and resolve necessary to rescue their nations from political and economic chaos. Japanese fascists (1936–45) fostered belief in the uniqueness of the Japanese spirit and taught subordination to the state and personal sacrifice. See also totalitarianism; neofascism.
Can a government agency block criticism by claiming copyright infringement? Sounds a bit ridiculous but it is happening. The NSA is effectively stopping one small business owner from criticism, claiming that by using its name he has infringed on their copyright.
Can they do that?
This is a Reality Check you won’t see anywhere else.
This is a story I had a hard time believing until I looked into it for myself. Here is the backstory.
Dan McCall is the owner of a company that makes snarky t-shirts. The company is called Liberty Maniacs. Liberty Maniacs carry a number of t-shirts dealing with lack of privacy and the growing police state. They sell on a site called www.Zazzle.com
None of it has been a problem—until Liberty Maniacs released a shirt called “The NSA.”
The image looks like the NSA logo but has a motto that is clearly a pun—“Peeping while you are sleeping”—followed by the phrase “The NSA, the only part of government that actually listens.”
Shortly after the shirt went online, www.Zazzle.com pulled the shirt from its website, sending this message: “Thank you for publishing products on Zazzle.
Unfortunately, it appears that your product, The NSA, contains content that is in conflict with one or more of our acceptable content guidelines. We will be removing this product from the Zazzle Marketplace shortly.
“Policy Notes: Design contains an image or text that may infringe on intellectual property rights. We have been contacted by the intellectual property right holder and we will be removing your product from Zazzle’s Marketplace due to infringement claims.”
Dan McCall, the owner of Liberty Maniacs spoke with me via Skype and says there were multiple items dealing with the NSA that were pulled down from Zazzle.
“In terms of shirts, two, and then maybe four or five bumper stickers. Basically anything remotely relating to the NSA was taken down. So I’m not sure if that was subsequently a blanket policy that Zazzle themselves put up because they don’t want to deal with the hassle and they didn’t want to spend time interpreting each thing knowing they would run into problems or if they were plugged into NSA legal and they were watching things as they go,” says McCall.
So to be clear, McCall was using the NSA logo, the NSA claimed copyright infringement and Zazzle.com pulled the content down.
In fairness, what McCall was doing does use the official logo of a government agency. Can anyone just use that logo? Actually, yes. According to both the Electronic Freedom Foundation and the American Bar Association, “parody is recognized as a type of fair use, like other commentary and criticism, and courts recognize that a parody must often take recognizable elements from the work it comments upon.
Courts do distinguish parody from satire. Parody copies from the object it mocks…”
You can’t claim copyright infringement if your logo or image is used as part of a parody. So the next question, is this logo a parody?
According to the U.S. Supreme Court, a parody “is the use of some elements of a prior author’s composition to create a new one that, at least in part, comments on that author’s works. Like other forms of comment or criticism, parody can provide social benefit, by shedding light on an earlier work, and, in the process, creating a new one.”
“According to the [U.S. Supreme] Court, a parody is the ‘use of some elements of a prior author’s composition to create a new one that, at least in part, comments on that author’s works.’ Id. at 580. Like other forms of comment or criticism, parody can provide social benefit, ‘by shedding light on an earlier work, and, in the process, creating a new one.’ Id.” –Juli Wilson Marshall, Nicholas J. Siciliano, Latham & Watkins LLP
McCall says, “I tried to visually take the most obvious direction at pointing at them that I could. It was their logo. I just tried to adulterate it a little bit and put a few jabs in there and that will be it. So it wasn’t a huge design coup and it did the job basically.”
Now, what might be the most interesting twist in this entire story is that while the NSA is claiming copyright infringement against McCall for his parody, the NSA itself is facing accusations of true copyright infringement.
Take a look at this image. This is the official NSA logo for the Prism program. Prism is, of course, the program that deals with NSA spying via email and phone records.
According to reports from England, the Prism image used here is being used without permission.
Adam Hart Davis is a well-known BBC presenter and the image belongs to him. Here is the Davis pic. As you can see, the NSA image is just Davis’ picture flipped upside down. Adam’s son, Damon, who wrote about this in the Register Newspaper, claims that the image is free for use, but a donation is requested and, at minimum, use of the image requires a link to his photo gallery and acknowledgement, none of which he has received from the NSA.
What you need to know is that because the work put out by Liberty Maniacs is clearly a parody, it is not copyright infringement. That is the easiest part of this story.
But the bigger issue here is the issue of free speech. It is a first amendment issue. McCall sees it that way as well.
“First amendment issues affect everybody and it specifically affects everybody who is expressing themselves—any artist, whether on the right or on the left or in the middle or whatever side. If you are not allowed to express yourself artistically or in many other ways, we have taken a turn for the worse,” says McCall.
Bottom line, there is no gray area here. But the NSA is a very powerful government agency. They don’t need a gray area or even to be right to get companies like Zazzle.com to cooperate.
This is why Internet piracy bills like SOPA and PIPA and CISPA are so dangerous. If those bills become law, all the feds have to do is claim copyright infringement to shut down an entire site. They don’t have to be right.
Dan McCall’s story is just a taste of what happens when government agencies decide they will enforce laws but not be subject to them.
Rumors of war documentary.
A silent communications system in which nonaural carriers, in the very low or very high audio frequency range or in the adjacent ultrasonic frequency spectrum, are amplitude or frequency modulated with the desired intelligence and propagated acoustically or vibrationally, for inducement into the brain, typically through the use of loudspeakers, earphones or piezoelectric transducers. The modulated carriers may be transmitted directly in real time or may be conveniently recorded and stored on mechanical, magnetic or optical media for delayed or repeated transmission to the listener.
Washington (AFP) - A US naval commander has been sacked over his alleged links to an elaborate bribery scandal that involved prostitutes, luxury travel and multimillion-dollar government contracts, officials said Friday.
Captain Daniel Dusek, commanding officer of the USS Bonhomme Richard based at the port of Sasebo, Japan, was relieved of his duties "due to a loss of confidence in his ability to command," the Navy said in a statement.
Dusek is under investigation by the Justice Department in a widening scandal that allegedly had a Singapore-based company offering cash, prostitutes and luxury travel in return for contracts to provide support services to naval ships, a military official said on condition of anonymity.
Although Dusek has not been charged with a crime, his superiors "determined the investigation negatively affected Dusek's leadership ability and was a distraction to the command mission," according to the Navy statement.
The Bonhomme Richard, an amphibious assault ship that sailors call the "Bonny Dick," is the flagship of an amphibious ready group for the Seventh Fleet.
Dusek, who had taken command of the warship in June 2012 and had been decorated for his previous missions, has been temporarily assigned to Expeditionary Strike Group Seven, officials said.
Another naval officer, Commander Michael Misiewicz, who commanded a destroyer and served as deputy operations officer for the head of the Seventh Fleet in the Pacific, has been charged in the case, as well as a supervisory special agent for the Naval Criminal Investigative Service (NCIS).
Federal authorities allege that Misiewicz, who fled the Khmer Rouge regime in Cambodia as a child and was adopted by an American woman, directed ships to certain ports where the Singapore-based firm overcharged for fuel, food, water and other services.
Misiewicz in return was allegedly given access to prostitutes, free travel and even tickets to a Lady Gaga concert.
The firm cited by federal prosecutors is Glenn Defense Marine Asia, and the CEO, Leonard Francis, has been charged, along with Misiewicz and the NCIS agent, with conspiracy to commit bribery.
In one email, GDMA's chief refers to certain prostitutes in Thailand as his "Elite Thai Seal Team."
After naval authorities began investigating the firm for possible overcharging for services, the accused NCIS agent, John Beliveau, allegedly supplied the head of GDMA with sensitive information about the probe, according to federal prosecutors.
The US Attorney's Office in San Diego first announced the case last month.
Better-off older people should pay tax at the same rate as younger people on similar incomes, a think tank argues.
The report from the Fabian Society argues that as older people are no longer always poor they should "share the pain of deficit reduction".
"All policies that appear to give special advantages to older people as a category should be reviewed," it says.
Age UK said financial options for elderly people were often very limited.
Researchers for the left-of-centre Fabian Society analysed data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (Elsa).
The paper, part of a series produced for the Hanover housing charity, suggests that the majority of older people are neither wealthy baby-boomers with "a surfeit of wealth and leisure" nor "pensioners on the breadline facing poverty, isolation and ill health".'Profound implications'
"The truth is that the majority of older people today are somewhere in between, neither rich nor poor, and the middle is expanding as a result of recent successes in reducing pensioner poverty," writes author Andrew Harrop.
"Of course this is something to welcome and celebrate, as part of the steady decline of pensioner poverty, but it has profound implications," he argues.
The paper says that "older people catching up with everyone else was not problematic while middle incomes were rising across the board.
"Perhaps it is more so today with growth in median earnings at a standstill."
Mr Harrop cites figures from 2010-11 that suggest that the real incomes of the middle fifth of all households were no greater than in 2003-04 "but middle incomes for retired households were 13% higher".
He added: "Since the financial crisis this disparity has become even more stark: real middle incomes have fallen by 5% overall, but they have risen 5% for retired households."
The report says that when it comes to disposable incomes after housing costs, pensioner couples are now in the top half of UK income distribution because 80% of them are homeowners and most are no longer paying rent or mortgages.
But, Mr Harrop argues, rising house prices have meant a fall in the share of people aged under 45 who are owner occupiers, "with the median 25 to 34-year-old now renting rather owning their home".
Michelle Mitchell Age UK
It can be difficult for older people to change their financial plans as their options are likely to be very limited”
When it comes to taxation, the paper highlights a "really significant intergenerational unfairness", with retired middle-income households paying 27% of their gross income in tax, compared with 33% for non-retired households with the same income.
The paper concludes that "in financial terms alone, older people are no longer special", and it calls on the government to assess the evidence for existing rules on social security, taxation and the design of services.
The paper says moves to equalise the tax system would have to be carried out more slowly to avoid a sudden fall in living standards.'Safety net'
In the meantime, it suggests the government should consider taking national insurance from earnings after state pension age and ending tax-free lump sums on private pensions.
It also argues for more taxes on property, such as a land value tax or a reformed council tax, to suppress rises in house prices.
On top of this, the paper suggests scrapping current rules that guarantee that the state pension "will rise annually by an average of 0.26% more than earnings" and restricting universal benefits to pensioners, such as winter fuel allowance, free TV licences and free bus travel.
Michelle Mitchell, of Age UK, said: "The Fabian Society is right to point out that there has been significant progress in tackling pensioner poverty in recent years. But there are still 1.7 million pensioners living in poverty today, while a further 1.1m have incomes only just above the poverty line.
"It can be difficult for older people to change their financial plans as their options are likely to be very limited. They have also contributed national insurance payments throughout their working lives to receive in return a state pension that ensures a financial safety net but little more."
A Treasury spokesperson said the government was committed to ensuring that older people are able to live with the dignity and respect they deserve and the basic state pension is the foundation of state support for older people.
"In difficult economic times, we have protected the benefits of those who have little means to increase their income, for instance pensioners."
A spokesman for the Department for Communities and Local Government said: "At a time when people are fighting for every pound in their pocket a tax hike is the last thing they need. The government has repeatedly made clear it will not be introducing any changes to council tax banding."
The mind-altering parasite called Toxoplasma gondii has a unique apparatus that is likely used to invade host cells and for its own replication. Shown here, the parasite is building daughter scaffolds within the mother cell.
EXCERPT: In multivariate analysis, risk for T. gondii infection increased with age and was higher among persons who were foreign-born, persons with a lower educational level, those who lived in crowded conditions, and those who worked in soil-related occupations, although in subset analyses risk categories varied by race/ethnicity. Nearly one quarter of adults and adolescents in the United States have been infected with T. gondii. Most women of childbearing age in the United States are susceptible to acute infection and should be educated about ways to minimize exposure to T. gondii.
Women infected with the cat parasite Toxoplasma gondii are more likely to attempt suicide than non-infected women, new research finds. The reason for this connection, however, remains mysterious.
T. gondii is a protozoa that prefers to infect cats, but can make its home in any warm-blooded animal. Humans can pick up the parasite from contact with cat feces, or by eating undercooked meat or unwashed vegetables. Once ingested, T. gondii can make a home for itself inside the brain and muscle tissues, protected inside cysts that are resistant to attacks by the host's immune system.
Some studies have linked infection by this parasite with a variety of mental health and brain problems, including schizophrenia, neurosis and brain cancer. But scientists aren't clear on whether the parasite contributes to these problems or is a mere side effect. Someone with schizophrenia, for example, might struggle to keep up good hygiene, meaning the mental disorder could increase the risk for infection. [Top 10 Diabolical & Disgusting Parasites]
The new study linking suicide and T. gondii has the same limitation. Researchers can't say for sure whether the parasite somehow drives people to suicide. But in women with infections, they found, the risk of an attempt is 1.5 times greater than in women without.
"We can't say with certainty that T. gondii caused the women to try to kill themselves, but we did find a predictive association between the infection and suicide attempts later in life that warrants additional studies," lead researcher Teodor Postolache, a psychiatrist at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, said in a statement. "We plan to continue our research into this possible connection."
A common infection
One-third of the world's population is infected with T. gondii, which is often asymptomatic. The parasite is the reason that pregnant women are advised not to change cat litter boxes — they can inadvertently pass an infection directly to their fetuses.
In its usual animal hosts, T. gondii plays a literal cat-and-mouse game. Mice infected with the parasite lose their fear of the smell of cat urine. The parasite actually changes the brain so that the cat-pee smell becomes sexy to mice, prompting them to get close to their adversaries. This works out well for the parasite, which needs to get to a cat intestine to reproduce.
It's unclear whether the parasite's mind-control techniques have any effect on infected humans. Spurred by a couple of small studies of mentally ill patients that found links between suicide and T. gondii, Postolache and his colleagues put together a massive research project on 45,788 Danish women whose newborns had been screened for T. gondii antibodies between 1992 and 1995 (a positive result was a sure sign that mom was infected). About a quarter of the women had been infected at the time of delivery, the results revealed.
The researchers then combed through all of the women's later medical records for suicide attempts. They found a relatively small number, 517, had tried to kill themselves, with 78 of these women attempting violent methods such as guns, sharp instruments or jumping. Eighteen women in the sample succeeded at killing themselves, eight of whom had T. gondii infections.
A statistical analysis turned up a link between suicide attempts and parasite infection, such that an increasing number of T. gondii antibodies were linked with an increasing risk of attempts, especially violent attempts. When looking at just attempted suicides, researchers found women who were infected were 1.8 times more likely to attempt suicide by violent means than uninfected women.
The researchers were able to control for diagnoses of mental illness, meaning that infection was independently linked to suicide attempts, not just to mental health problems in general.
Suicide and parasites
More study will be needed to determine if the parasite somehow causes suicide attempts or self-harm, Postolache said.
"T. gondii infection is likely not a random event, and it is conceivable that the results could be alternatively explained by people with psychiatric disturbances having a higher risk of becoming T. gondii infected prior to contact with the health system," he said.
If the parasite is found to be a cause, the next mystery to unravel will be how, Postolache said. It could be that the parasite acts directly on the brain in a way that promotes mental illness. Or perhaps it triggers the immune system to attack the brain somehow. Either way, he said, infection by T. gondii isn't necessarily a mark of doom. For one thing, even with a 26 percent infection rate, the number of women in the study who attempted suicide was very small. For those who may be at risk, there may be treatments.
"If we can identify a causal relationship, we may be able to predict those at increased risk for attempting suicide and find ways to intervene," Postolache said.
A fair amount of research has taken place on Toxoplasma gondii, the bizarre parasite that makes mice unafraid of cats, and the latest chapter is a strange one.
A new study shows that even a brief infection with a weakened form of the protozoan caused mice to permanently lose their innate fear of cats.
The protozoan is known to cause this change in mice after a lingering infection and after it produces cysts in the mouse brain, according to the study, published online Sept. 18 in the journal PLOS ONE. But until now scientists didn't know this apparently long-lasting change could occur after only a short infection, and without development of cysts and brain inflammation. The study also showed the change occurred with weakened forms of all three major variants of the protozoa found in North America. [The 10 Most Diabolical & Disgusting Parasites]
"It is remarkable that even after the infection has been largely or completely cleared, a profound behavioral change persists," said Wendy Ingram, a study author and researcher at the University of California, Berkeley, in a statement from PLOS ONE. "Simply having a transient infection resulting in what is potentially a permanent change in host biology may have huge implications for infectious disease medicine."
Ingram isn't sure the mechanism involved in the long-term behavior change, though she speculates the parasite may disrupt the smell region of a mouse's brain, preventing the rodent from detecting cat odor that would trigger the fear. Another possibility is that the parasite directly modifies mouse brain cells that are linked to memory and learning.
Toxoplasma gondii is found throughout the world and infects a large number of mammals, including humans. However, the protozoan can only reproduce within the bodies of cats, and in mice, the mind-controlling parasite has evidently evolved to make mice unafraid of felines and even, according to some research, sexually attracted to the odor of cat urine; this makes it more likely infected mice will be eaten, and the parasite will make it back into a cat to spawn.
The parasite is found in as many as one-third to one-half of humans, and its presence in the brain has been linked with suicide attempts. It may affect other areas of mental health: One study suggested that people with the parasite scored higher on tests of neuroticism, an emotional or mental trait characterized by high levels of anxiety or insecurity.
For members of religious groups to qualify for
this exemption, they would have to be
adherents of a religion or sect
"described in section 1402(g)(1)" of the Internal Revenue Code, which governs exemptions from the payment of Social Security and Medicare taxes on self-employment income. In general, persons seeking a health insurance exemption must belong to a religion (or sect thereof) which has been in existence since 1951 and has an established history of spurning participation in insurance programs: (g) Members of certain religious faiths (1) Exemption Any individual may file an application (in such form and manner, and with such official, as may be prescribed by regulations under this chapter) for an exemption from the tax imposed by this chapter if he is a member of a recognized religious sect or division thereof and is an adherent of established tenets or teachings of such sect or division by reason of which he is conscientiously opposed to acceptance of the benefits of any private or public insurance which makes payments in the event of death, disability, old-age, or retirement or makes payments toward the cost of, or provides services for, medical care (including the benefits of any insurance system established by the Social Security Act).
Such exemption may be granted only if the application contains or is accompanied by -
(A) such evidence of such individual's membership in, and adherence to the tenets or teachings of, the sect or division thereof as the Secretary may require for purposes of determining such individual's compliance with the preceding sentence, and
(B) his waiver of all benefits and other payments under titles II and XVIII of the Social Security Act on the basis of his wages and self-employment income as well as all such benefits and other payments to him on the basis of the wages and self-employment income of any other person, and only if the Commissioner of Social Security finds that -
(C) such sect or division thereof has the established tenets or teachings referred to in the preceding sentence,
(D) it is the practice, and has been for a period of time which he deems to be substantial, for members of such sect or division thereof to make provision for their dependent members which in his judgment is reasonable in view of their general level of living, and
(E) such sect or division thereof has been in existence at all times since December 31, 1950. An exemption may not be granted to any individual if any benefit or other payment referred to in subparagraph (B) became payable (or, but for section 203 or 222(b) of the Social Security Act, would have become payable) at or before the time of the filing of such waiver. How these provisions might be applied is currently a matter of speculation, not fact.
Groups such as the Anabaptists (i.e., Amish, Mennonites, Hutterites) would likely qualify for an exemption from the health insurance requirement, as they have an established history of declining Social Security benefits and making their own provisions for dependent members (as described in the Amish FAQ):
Q: Do the Amish pay taxes? A: Self-employed Amish do not pay Social Security tax. Those employed by non-Amish employers do pay Social Security tax. The Amish do pay real estate, state and federal income taxes, county taxes, sales tax, etc. The Amish do not collect Social Security benefits, nor would they collect unemployment or welfare funds. Self sufficiency is the Amish community's answer to government aid programs. Section 310 of the Medicare section of the Social Security act has a sub-section that permits individuals to apply for exemption from the self-employment tax if he is a member of a religious body that is conscientiously opposed to Social Security benefits but that makes reasonable provision of taking care of their own elderly or dependent members. The Amish have a long history of taking care of their own members. They do not have retirement communities or nursing homes; in most cases, each family takes care of their own, and the Amish community gives assistance as needed. Whether Muslims would qualify for an exemption from the health insurance requirements is more difficult to define, as Islam is a much larger religion with practices that vary according to sect and region. Although Islam does have a tradition of barring conventional insurance products because they "involve an element of uncertainty, gambling and the charging of interest, which are prohibited by the Koran," some Muslim groups make exceptions for insurance which is required by law (such as automobile insurance), and some Muslim groups do not have objections to medical insurance.
Most likely, though, Muslims would not qualify for an
exemption from U.S. health insurance requirements
because U.S. Muslims do not have a tradition of spurning Social Security (which is viewed more as a form of caring for those who are unable to meet their own needs than as something which involves elements of uncertainty, gambling, and interest payments), and no Muslim group has ever qualified for an exemption under the guidelines which define which religious groups would be exempt from the health care law.
The PPACA does not specifically "deny special exemptions to Christians and Jews," but it is unlikely that either of those groups would qualify for a blanket religious conscience exemption, as neither of those groups has a history of disdaining or prohibiting the use of insurance among their membership.
The bottom line is that the health insurance mandate provision of PPACA doesn't kick in until the year 2014, and between then and now there's no telling what challenges may be launched (or accepted) regarding who might be exempt from it. Despite frequent mention of the term in Internet-circulated rumors, the word "Dhimmitude" does not appear in the PPACA, and it has no application to U.S. health care legislation. The term is a French neologism coined by adding the suffix -tude to dhimmi, an Arabic word which which literally means "protected" and has historically been used to refer to a person living in a region overrun by Muslim conquest who was accorded a protected status and allowed to retain his original faith in exchange for payment of taxes.
A leaked copy of the world’s most authoritative climate study reveals scientific forecasts of imminent doom were drastically wrong.
The Mail on Sunday has obtained the final draft of a report to be published later this month by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the ultimate watchdog whose massive, six-yearly ‘assessments’ are accepted by environmentalists, politicians and experts as the gospel of climate science.
They are cited worldwide to justify swingeing fossil fuel taxes and subsidies for ‘renewable’ energy.
Yet the leaked report makes the extraordinary concession that over the past 15 years, recorded world temperatures have increased at only a quarter of the rate of IPCC claimed when it published its last assessment in 2007.
Back then, it said observed warming over the 15 years from 1990-2005 had taken place at a rate of 0.2C per decade, and it predicted this would continue for the following 20 years, on the basis of forecasts made by computer climate models.
But the new report
says the observed warming over the more recent 15 years to 2012 was just
0.05C per decade - below almost all computer predictions.
The 31-page ‘summary for policymakers’ is based on a more technical 2,000-page analysis which will be issued at the same time. It also surprisingly reveals: IPCC scientists accept their forecast computers may have exaggerated the effect of increased carbon emissions on world temperatures – and not taken enough notice of natural variability.
They recognise the global warming ‘pause’ first reported by The Mail on Sunday last year is real – and concede that their computer models did not predict it. But they cannot explain why world average temperatures have not shown any statistically significant increase since 1997.
lThey admit large parts of the world were as warm as they are now for decades at a time between 950 and 1250 AD – centuries before the Industrial Revolution, and when the population and CO2 levels were both much lower.
lThe IPCC admits that while computer models forecast a decline in Antarctic sea ice, it has actually grown to a new record high. Again, the IPCC cannot say why.
lA forecast in the 2007 report that hurricanes would become more intense has simply been dropped, without mention.
This year has been one of the quietest hurricane seasons in history and the US is currently enjoying its longest-ever period – almost eight years – without a single hurricane of Category 3 or above making landfall.
One of the report’s own authors, Professor Myles Allen, the director of Oxford University’s Climate Research Network, last night said this should be the last IPCC assessment – accusing its cumbersome production process of ‘misrepresenting how science works’.
Despite the many scientific uncertainties disclosed by the leaked report, it nonetheless draws familiar, apocalyptic conclusions – insisting that the IPCC is more confident than ever that global warming is mainly humans’ fault.
It says the world will continue to warm catastrophically unless there is drastic action to curb greenhouse gases – with big rises in sea level, floods, droughts and the disappearance of the Arctic icecap.
Last night Professor Judith Curry, head of climate science at Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, said the leaked summary showed that ‘the science is clearly not settled, and is in a state of flux’.
She said it therefore made no sense that the IPCC was claiming that its confidence in its forecasts and conclusions has increased.
For example, in the new report, the IPCC says it is ‘extremely likely’ – 95 per cent certain – that human influence caused more than half the temperature rises from 1951 to 2010, up from ‘very confident’ – 90 per cent certain – in 2007.
Prof Curry said: ‘This is incomprehensible to me’ – adding that the IPCC projections are ‘overconfident’, especially given the report’s admitted areas of doubt.
Head of climate science at Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, said the leaked summary showed that 'the science is clearly not settled, and is in a state of flux'
Starting a week tomorrow, about 40 of the 250 authors who contributed to the report – and supposedly produced a definitive scientific consensus – will hold a four-day meeting in Stockholm, together with representatives of most of the 195 governments that fund the IPCC, established in 1998 by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
The governments have tabled 1,800 questions and are demanding major revisions, starting with the failure to account for the pause.
Prof Curry said she hoped that the ‘inconsistencies will be pointed out’ at the meeting, adding: ‘The consensus-seeking process used by the IPCC creates and amplifies biases in the science. It should be abandoned in favour of a more traditional review that presents arguments for and against – which would better support scientific progress, and be more useful for policy makers.’ Others agree that the unwieldy and expensive IPCC assessment process has now run its course.
Prof Allen said: ‘The idea of producing a document of near-biblical infallibility is a misrepresentation of how science works, and we need to look very carefully about what the IPCC does in future.’
Climate change sceptics are more outspoken. Dr Benny Peiser, of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, described the leaked report as a ‘staggering concoction of confusion, speculation and sheer ignorance’.
As for the pause, he said ‘it would appear that the IPCC is running out of answers . . . to explain why there is a widening gap between predictions and reality’.
Mail on Sunday has also seen an earlier draft of the report, dated
October last year. There are many striking differences between it and
the current, ‘final’ version.
The 2012 draft makes no mention of the pause and, far from admitting that the Middle Ages were unusually warm, it states that today’s temperatures are the highest for at least 1,300 years, as it did in 2007. Prof Allen said the change ‘reflects greater uncertainty about what was happening around the last millennium but one’.
A further change in the new version is the first-ever scaling down of a crucial yardstick, the ‘equilibrium climate sensitivity’ – the extent to which the world is meant to warm each time CO2 levels double.
things stand, the atmosphere is expected to have twice as much CO2 as
in pre-industrial times by about 2050. In 2007, the IPCC said the
‘likeliest’ figure was 3C, with up to 4.5C still ‘likely’.
Now it does not give a ‘likeliest’ value and admits it is ‘likely’ it may be as little as 1.5C – so giving the world many more decades to work out how to reduce carbon emissions before temperatures rise to dangerous levels.
As a result of the warming pause, several recent peer-reviewed scientific studies have suggested that the true figure for the sensitivity is much lower than anyone – the IPCC included – previously thought: probably less than 2C.
Last night IPCC communications chief Jonathan Lynn refused to comment, saying the leaked report was ‘still a work in progress’.
Sea ice surrounding Antarctica hit a record high in August and is on track for another record-breaking month in September. Clocking in at a stunning 7.2 million square miles (18.7 million square kilometers), last month's sea ice extent was 4.5 percent above the 1981 to 2010 average and the largest extent since record-keeping started in 1979, according to data released today from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in its monthly State of the Climate Report.
September marks the end of Antarctica's winter, and daily sea ice reports posted online at the National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colo., suggest the growing ice pack has already smashed the all-time record ice extent set in September 2012. This year's massive sea ice reached 7.53 million square miles (19.51 million square km) on Sept. 14, 2013, the NSIDC reports. The old record was 7.51 million square miles (19.44) million square km. The data is preliminary and the NSIDC website came back online yesterday (Sept. 16) after a three-day shutdown due to the Colorado flooding disaster.
The record sea ice doesn't contradict global warming. Because Antarctic sea ice encircles a frozen continent, the factors controlling its growth are complex, and include winds, warming air temperatures and even the ozone hole. Wind plays a greater role the size of the ice pack than air temperature or ocean currents, according to a study published in the Nov. 11, 2012, issue of the journal Nature Geoscience. The fierce circumpolar winds carry frigid air from the continent to the sea, freezing the ocean's surface and pushing the ice around. The August ice surge was likely due to weather patterns that favored more ice, the Antarctic Sun reported.